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Structure of the Assignment:
(A) INTRODUCTION – SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND

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Discussing scientific forecast models and their consequences for decision making
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(1) Give an overview of the crisis from beginning up to now. Make use of some descriptive statistics, like time series etc. Use trustfully sources in the internet!

(2) Search for models in the internet which describe the behavior of the spreading of disease. Try to discuss scientific forecast models and their consequences for decision making. Here are possible starting points:

General:

https://hackmd.io/@anjalorenz/coronaupdate [some links go to German Webpages]

Forecasting

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/model/

(Some models are quite technical and mathematical non trivial. Nevertheless, try to understand the key points of mathematical forecast models. Keep in mind: You do not need to write a Ph. D. Thesis about partial differential equations.)

Empirical Data:

https://ezproxy2.hsrw.eu/login?url=https://de.statista.com/

Make sure that the Introduction Part has some relation to the Main Part of your paper.

(B) MAIN PART

Define a relevant Strategic Scenario with certain subgroups (decision maker). Here are some examples. You can also define your own topic but try to work on only one main problem: Here are four examples (you are free to define your own strategic scenario):

(a) Political Decision Making: Try to formalize the conflict between goals like public health and economic stability. Discuss different reactions to the crisis by comparing different countries.

(b) Interactive Individual Decision Making: “Why people go to “Corona Parties”? Can this be rational? It might be possible to use some games from the lecture to make a model of that strategic problem.

(c) Decision making for Companies: What to do as a company during that crisis. Try to discuss strategic decision models for different branches. This can contain questions related to communication, switch to new markets (online markets) or products (e. g. masks), but also concrete steps to get access to governmental financial support.

(d) Decision making for Institutions: How should a university react to this crisis. What is the political frame for making decisions?

Possible Structure of the MAIN PART:

i) Describe informal your chosen scenario

ii) Chose a game or a game-theoretical structure as a model

iii) Analyse the model

iv) Give some tecomendations for decission maker

(C) LIST OF REFERENCES

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Recommendation how to work on the assignment:

Try to get a good overview to the content which is relevant for the INTRODUCTION PART.

Preselect your favorite topic for the MAIN PART

Then:

Work on the MAIN PART.

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